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15 Aug 2012: Systems Engineering and the Amelia Earhart Mystery

by Communications Team on August 19, 2012  •   Print This Post Print This Post   •   


Gundars Osvalds presented a synopsis of a 107- page Systems Engineering paper that he and co-author George Anderson completed in June 2012.

The feature speaker at our Joint INCOSE/AIAA August 15, 2012 dinner meeting was our very own Gundars Osvalds, a 10+year member of the Chesapeake Chapter and a past board member. We had one of largest crowds as 65 attendees listen to Gundars presented an abbreviated and focused synopsis of a 107- page Systems Engineering paper that he and co-author George Anderson completed in June 2012.

2012 marks the 75 anniversary of the Earhart disappearance and a great deal of public interest is focused on her career as well as a recent expedition that hoped to find evidence of the doomed flight. The purpose of their paper was to provide a systems engineering analysis and develop a process for locating the remnants of the missing Lockheed 10E aircraft.


Gundars Osvalds explaining the End of Flight Scenario.

Gundar’s presentation was a masterpiece of historical detail, color illustrations, pertinent facts and systems engineering relevance. He started his closely timed presentation by introducing the two crew members who were on the aircraft bound for the remote destination of Howland Island. From there he described the environment of 1930’s aviation and introduced the concept map that was instrumental in identifying valuable insights and establishing important relationships. Much of this was introduced for the first time in spite of a prolific total of published works on Amelia Earhart that currently exceeds 1500 titles. Gundar was able to show in a single slide — how, why and where the aircraft reached its end of flight at a location southwest of and 150 NM from Howland Island.

The presentation concluded with how Bayes Theorem was used to create a search grid and a list of findings and recommendations.

The most prominent recommendation was a call to establish a panel of Nationally recognized experts to prioritize and clarify the search area near Howland Island. This effort could greatly facilitate a successful and early retrieval of the artifacts. The report and the concept map may be found and downloaded from: NR16020report.org

Download Gundars Osvalds Presentation (Warning: large file 11MB big)

Listen to his presentation (Warning: Very large mp3 file 63MB big)

Original Announcement

Enjoy our Slideshow of the event below:

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